2025 U.S. Open Bettors’ Roundtable: Favorites, Sleepers, Props and Best Bets for Oakmont

The U.S. Open is set for one of the most revered venues in all of golf: Oakmont. Here to break it down we have once again convened a panel of Sports Illustrated golf writers and editors: Bob Harig, John Schwarb, Max Schreiber and Jeff Ritter, along with Iain MacMillan, Cody Williams and Brian Giuffra, three betting experts from our partners at SI Betting and FanSided. On to the Open.

A quick look at the current odds shows that Scottie Scheffler (+270) is more than three times lower than the second betting choice Rory McIlroy (+850). Are these players priced correctly?

Bob Harig, SI Golf:  Yes. It’s difficult to envision a scenario where anyone is close to Scheffler going in given his play over the past month including a victory in his last start. Oakmont seems perfect for his game, too.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Based on his performance over the last two months, and even dating back to last year, yes, he’s priced appropriately. I hate those odds. I wrote about how they’re in Tiger Woods territory. But you can’t argue against them being so short given the way he’s lapping the competition right now or his history at the U.S. Open. 

John Schwarb, SI Golf: Looks absurd—+260 to win a golf tournament—but we’ve seen that before in the Peak Tiger Era and Scheffler is just about in that zone now. Wouldn’t think we’d have seen McIlroy at this high of a price after winning the Masters but the PGA and Canadian Open are cause for concern.

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: Scheffler is certainly priced correctly. If anything I’d argue he should be even more of a favorite based on how he’s played lately and how difficult Oakmont will be for the majority of the field. Rory McIlroy, in my opinion, should have much longer odds. His form has fallen off since winning the Masters and a missed cut at a non-signature event, the Canadian Open, the week before Oakmont is a bad sign.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf:. McIlroy’s game fits Oakmont well, however, his recent driver change has added a wrinkle to that statement. Scheffler is for sure the best player in the game at the moment and should be the heavy favorite. And there’s a good case for DeChambeau over McIlroy. 

Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: Scheffler’s spot well clear of the field atop the odds board is correct. There’s a case to be made that he might be putting together a better statistical season than what we saw last year, as absurd as that sounds. The upside with Rory at Oakmont is there but the form, especially with a squirrely driver since the PGA, is a bit worrisome. I second Max’s assertion that Bryson is a warranted challenger to McIlroy as the second favorite in my book.

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: McIlroy’s MC in Canada is a big, bright red flag, and not the one with a maple leaf in the center. I think he’s still the second choice behind Scheffler, but like the rest of this group I like Scottie’s chances much more.

Bryson DeChambeau has played well in the first two majors (T5 Masters, T2 PGA) and looks to become the first back-to-back U.S. Open champ since his fellow LIV golfer Brooks Koepka. What kind of chance do you give Bryson and is he LIV's only hope this week?

Bob Harig, SI Golf: If Bryson gets his irons dialed in—an issue for him so far this year—he absolutely has a great chance to repeat. It would probably help more if he hit a lot of fairways. Even brawny Bryson is going to have trouble out of the fearsome Oakmont rough. While he is LIV’s best hope, Jon Rahm is not to be discounted, and one of these days Joaquin Niemann is going to make a run at a major championship.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: It’s all about his iron game and it’s impossible to tell how dialed they are based on his performances on YouTube and LIV. That’s the one thing holding him back from being on Scottie’s level. At Oakmont, loose shots like he hit at Augusta and Quail Hollow will be punished at a much higher level. If you remember at Pinehurst last year he got away with some loose irons on Sunday with some unbelievable recovery shots. He won’t be able to do that at Oakmont. Not with the greens running that fast and the rough that thick. This is a ball striker's paradise. DeChambeau better come with the goods, but I’m fading him this week. 

John Schwarb, SI Golf: Not judging a player’s chances off a YouTube video, but I enjoyed Bryson’s recent trip around Oakmont (2.2 million views and counting) and the respect he gave the place. His game worked at Pinehurst and there’s no reason why it can’t at Oakmont if he’s driving it well. Jon Rahm isn’t to be forgotten either after contending at the PGA. 

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: Oakmont is going to test every skill a golfer has and if there is a single weakness, the course is going to exploit it. That’s why I have little faith in Bryson this week. His irons have not been up to standard in 2025 and that’s going to cause him trouble at Oakmont. Instead, I’d lean more toward Jon Rahm, who while he hasn’t been excellent yet this season, he’s been consistent in every aspect of his game. If his form can take one step forward this week, he has the best chance to take down Scheffler.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf:. There are a few LIV players who could make a run (Rahm, Niemann, Koepka), but DeChambeau has a great chance to repeat if he keeps up his recent form in majors. It would be no surprise if he’s holding the trophy Sunday night. 

Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: I think you’d be crazy to not give Bryson some serious credence this week. His ability to overpower a golf course will be put to the test by a place like Oakmont but he’s also developed beautifully as a blend of power and smarts, which was on full display at Pinehurst. He’s a deserved top threat for LIV this week, but don’t count out Jon Rahm or Joaquin Niemann.

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: DeChambeau is LIV’s best hope entering the week but that rough is foreboding. Can he keep it in the fairway? Like a couple guys mentioned, Jon Rahm has been sneakily consistent this season and he got reacclimated to major pressure at last month’s PGA. He’s my No. 2 betting choice this week behind Scottie and I’m all over him at 12-1.

Oakmont is known as a brute, and this week is expected to feature six-inch rough as part of a typically diabolical setup. How does Oakmont affect your betting strategy?

Bob Harig, SI Golf: Guys who are hitting it poorly off the tee are tough to back this week. That’s what makes Rory McIlroy so compelling. As good as this venue looked for him when he won the Masters, it looks terrible now given his driver woes. 

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: I’m focused on ball striking and, specifically, recent ball striking. That’s why Rory and Bryson are a fade for me this week. They’re not as dialed as I want them to be on a course like this. 

John Schwarb, SI Golf: With Oakmont’s greens I’d like to say I would handicap from the green back to the tee, but there’s no getting around the need to be long and straight this week. If you’re not in the fairway consistently you’ll be lucky to see Saturday, never mind Sunday afternoon.

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: I’m going to completely discount the majority of the field. Any Tour golfer can realistically win at an easy course if they get hot enough, but at a course where mistakes get compounded, any golfer not in the top 10 in the world has little to no shot. Big dogs only this week.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf:. Will this setup be too challenging that we get a random winner? Certainly possible, but anyone who bombs it off the tee and can keep it in the fairway has a chance this week. 

Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: Iain might’ve said it best with, to paraphrase, this is a big-dogs-only type of golf course. Nothing is impossible, but it’s definitely less likely than normal that we get any kind of dark horse or sleeper coming out of nowhere to win a major this week. Beyond that, play from the rough and/or length-plus-accuracy off the tee will be getting a lot of attention from yours truly.

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: In terms of win bets, I’m deleting everyone outside the world’s top 30, re-adding Rahm and going from there. Nice time-saver.

Speaking of Oakmont, it’s undeniably one of the USGA’s favorite spots for the U.S. national championship. Is it the best U.S. Open venue, and if not, what’s your choice?

Bob Harig, SI Golf: It’s right up there, and has been given anchor site status by the USGA, which is understandable. But the best U.S. Open venue is Pebble Beach. The scenery, the lack of rain (usually) in the summer, the history (Nicklaus, Watson, Kite, Woods were the first four winners) all make for a special place. You could argue that the USGA should treat it like the R&A does St. Andrews and bring it to Pebble Beach every five years.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Shinnecock is my favorite course in the U.S. Open rotation. Similarly as tough as Oakmont, but in a totally different way, the green designs and layout there are simply breathtaking. The clubhouse and history certainly add to that, but vs Oakmont, that’s a bit of a wash. I like seeing players in trouble on tight runoffs better than thick rough, plus I think the piece of land is a bit more appealing, so I’m excited for next year. That said, Oakmont is my second favorite. 

John Schwarb, SI Golf: Yes, Oakmont is the best. Of its nine U.S. Open winners, only Sam Parks Jr. didn’t win multiple majors, and the course is straight out of central casting for the USGA. It’s not just the pros who take a beating, the members like it to be major-championship hard for everyday play.  

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: Yes, it’s my favorite right next to Pinehurst. The U.S. Open has made a brand of itself of being the most difficult test in golf and Oakmont is the course best suited to do exactly that. While places like Pebble Beach are historic, Oakmont checks every box you want for a U.S. Open.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf: It’s certainly one of the most iconic and boasts abundant history, as do many U.S. Open venues. However, I’m a fan of trying places we don’t see very often. Sometimes it works (The Country Club), and sometimes it doesn’t (LACC). But I’m O.K. leaving out venues that we see every year on Tour, like Torrey Pines and (hot take) even Pebble Beach. For historical purposes, we need U.S. Opens at Pebble, but Gary Woodland winning at 13 under in 2019 did not provide the carnage that many USO viewers want. 

Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: Especially when it comes to the US Open, I want to see the best players in the world have to grind. Oakmont delivers that type of test and, as a result, it’s certainly near the top of my personal list. 

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: Pebble looks the best on TV and it's my second choice, but for my money Oakmont is the best Open venue because it just embodies everything the championship stands for. 

What’s your favorite prop bet this week?

Bob Harig, SI Golf: Will the winning score be under par? Given all the hype around the difficultly of Oakmont and the rough, this seems a fun question. I’d go with yes because there is rain in the forecast and the softer conditions will allow someone to shoot low at least once.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: I’ll probably bet the winner without Scottie Scheffler market and wager on Collin Morikawa, but the one I like is the anytime hole-in-one at +135 on DraftKings. I know the par 3s are tough here, but with so many great players playing so many holes I think one of them gets it in there and I like the plus odds. 

John Schwarb, SI Golf: DraftKings has the over/under winning score at 278.5, shaded to the over as carnage is expected. And there will be, don’t get me wrong, but I think the winner (cough, Scottie, cough) can get to 2 under if not a hair better. And I’ll get +105 for my belief.

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: I’m going to bet on Rory McIlroy to miss the cut. His form has been off since winning the Masters and he wasn’t even close to making the cut at the Canadian Open which had a relatively weak field. There’s not enough time for him to turn his game around before this week’s tournament and his driver issues are likely to persist. 

Max Schreiber, SI Golf:. All but two U.S. Open champions have been American in the last decade. I think that trend continues. 

Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: Lucas Glover is even money to miss the cut at Oakmont and, with all due respect to the 2009 U.S. Open champion, I’m all over that. Glover not only lost 4.67 strokes on approach and 8 strokes overall at the Memorial, but he’s been largely a non-factor in this major over the past decade plus. Throw in a course fit that seems questionable at best, I don’t see him playing the weekend.

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: Iain swiped my idea of taking McIlroy to MC. But look, it’s the Open and anyone—anyone—can get lost in the rough and suddenly make a couple doubles and a quad before they know it. Scottie Scheffler feels like too much of a favorite, and so his odds to miss the cut are also a bloated +750. At that price, why not take a shot? 

What long shot with odds 60-1 or higher could surprise this week?

Bob Harig, SI Golf: Wyndham Clark. Can a U.S. Open champion just two years removed really be 100-1? Clark has not been great, but he’s also more than capable if he gets his tee shots in play.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: I don’t see a long shot winning this week. That doesn’t mean I won’t bet the market, but the cream tends to rise to the top at this course, and I don’t see many opportunities for a long shot to win, though I’m sure many will compete. That said, the guy I’m betting on this week is Keegan Bradley at +10000. His ball striking metrics are all outstanding and his history at the U.S. Open also stands out. The U.S. Ryder Cup captain would punch his ticket to playing at the Ryder Cup with a win too. 

John Schwarb, SI Golf: Harris English at 100-1 (DraftKings) looks tasty. He was T12 at the Masters and T2 at the PGA and loves tough courses. He’s 46th on Tour in strokes-gained off the tee and 20th in strokes-gained putting—I’ll take 100 to 1 on those stats, thankyouverymuch.

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: Without taking anything away from Wyndham Clark’s U.S. Open win, Los Angeles Country Club wasn’t what I would call a true USGA venue. It played relatively easy and even in his win, Clark hit plenty of wayward drives that didn’t penalize him too much. Now, he’s in much worse form at a much more difficult course. 100-1 odds are completely warranted in this case.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf:. Matt Fitzpatrick. Though his game has fallen since winning the 2023 RBC Heritage, he showed some life with a T8 at the PGA Championship. He has lost some yards off the tee the past few years, but he can still bomb it, and he’s above average on Tour in driving accuracy. Plus, he’s won a U.S. Open before. I’d take a flyer on him. 

Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: Am I rushing to bet Corey Conners at 65-1 (FanDuel)? Probably not — but I can absolutely see the vision. Because of the elite ball-striking with his irons, it often goes overlooked how accurate Conners is off the tee. If he can put that together and not bleed strokes with the short game, which he’s done a good job of late with, he has the chops to contend. 

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: Viktor Hovland is undeniably streaky and maybe even a bit of a head case. But he’s one of the only guys down the board with an A game that would be good enough to win at Oakmont. It would also be a heck of a way to get off the BPWAM list. At 60-1 all you want is a chance, and Hovland has one.

There can only be one: Who wins this U.S. Open, and give us one sentence why.

Bob Harig, SI Golf: Scottie Scheffler. Not much to think about here. It’s never easy, and Scheffler didn’t have a great U.S. Open last year. But the schedule set up nicer for him this time. He’s coming off a great win at the Memorial and his PGA triumph. Time to get the third leg of the career Grand Slam.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: It’s probably Scottie, but where’s the fun in that?! The guy I’m targeting this week is Collin Morikawa. He’s got a great history at the U.S. Open with two Top 5s and two Top 15s. He’s one of the most accurate players on tour and his approach game is sublime. The reason I like him this week is that he’s gained shots with the putter in his last three events. You can get him at +2500 at DraftKings. 

John Schwarb, SI Golf: Scottie Scheffler. I can’t overthink this one, he is simply on another level from everyone else in the game. 

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: I hate picking the square and obvious guy, but this is Scottie Scheffler’s week. Someone else would have to bring their A++ game to take down the No. 1 golfer in the world. The more difficult the course, the better suited for Scottie and no other golfer excels in every aspect of the game like Scheffler does right now. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t win.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf: It’s boring, I know, but Scottie Scheffler is playing too well right now to go against him. Then, we’ll enter the British Open talking about whether he can complete the career Grand Slam. 

Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: Honestly, I probably lean Scheffler as well. But let’s dig a little deeper and go with Viktor Hovland to get it done. His short game woes have long been mitigated when the rough makes everything a bit of a dart throw around the greens and he’s been top 5 in the world on approach over the last few months. This feels like a good spot for him to get his maiden major victory.

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: I have hunch Jon Rahm has fully resettled himself after a bumpy move to LIV Golf, and after fading to Scheffler on Sunday at Quail Hollow he’ll be ready for his next turn in the major spotlight. This time he shocks Scheffler and wins career major No. 3.