Fantasy Football Draft Or Pass: Was Jonnu Smith A One-Year Wonder?

Jonnu Smith was one of the least predictable breakout candidates from last season. The veteran had failed to meet expectations for most of his previous seven pro campaigns, and the Miami Dolphins had rarely used the tight end position in the passing game under coach Mike McDaniel.

That all changed, unexpectedly, as Smith saw 111 targets, posted 88 catches for 884 yards with eight touchdowns. All told, he scored 222.3 fantasy points.

That was good enough for Smith to finish fourth in PPR points among tight ends.

Believe it or not, Smith finished second behind former fantasy superstar Tyreek Hill in terms of the percentage of team targets with 19.5. That was just 2.2 percent less than Hill (21.7), and it was more than Jaylen Waddle (14.6). No one saw that coming, especially after Durham Smythe saw just 7.8 percent of the targets as Miami’s lead tight end in 2023.

Jonnu Smith 2025 Fantasy Outlook

Smith’s name has been mentioned in trade rumors over the last few weeks, most notably in a potential deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers. That’s likely due in large part to Arthur Smith, who is their offensive coordinator and who coached Smith in both Tennessee and Atlanta.

If we assume that Smith will remain in Miami, which is where his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, said he wants to play, then he’ll remain a top-10 tight end in fantasy drafts. However, I’d be surprised if he’s able to duplicate the same level of statistical success he had last season.

That doesn’t mean he won’t produce attractive fantasy numbers, as he proved to be a real matchup mismatch in McDaniel’s offense. Still, the 18.6 point-per-game average he had in the final eight weeks is likely to be difficult (if not altogether impossible) to replicate.

Jonnu Smith Draft Or Pass

The tight end position is very thin, so it’s tough to move Smith down too far in the rankings despite some likely regression. Remember, David Njoku was a top-10 fantasy tight end last year ... and he missed a total of six games! Njoku finished with 64 catches, 505 yards and five touchdowns. So, even if Smith sees a decline to those levels, he’s still a fantasy starter.

Again, this all assumes that Smith isn’t traded and remains in South Florida. Smith is in a contract year, after all, so the Dolphins might want to move him before he looks for what would likely be a heavy increase from the $4.6 million he’s scheduled to make in 2025.

Jonnu Smith Verdict

The current ADP data for Smith has a major discrepancy. He is the TE11 based on the NFFC website, with an average draft position of 111.0. That puts him in the ninth or 10th round, making him a potential bargain in drafts. On the flip side, he’s the TE6 at Underdog Fantasy. However, his ADP of 96.1 isn’t that far off from the NFFC, as drafters on Underdog seem to be waiting on tight ends a bit longer. Regardless, Smith is a draft for me in this ADP range.