Non-Ancillary Reasons for Why Vanderbilt's Season Ended in Surprise Loss

This writer has never played college baseball. In fact, the highest level of baseball he’s played was kid pitch in the third grade. His biggest claim to fame was being the only kid to be hit by a pitch in coach pitch (by his own dad).

So, I can’t claim to know what the Vanderbilt players, coaches and other staff are feeling right now. I don’t know the work and time they’ve spent to get to this point and I’ll likely never know. But we all have experienced times of disappointment and sadness that may not let us symphonize with the Commodores, but we can empathize with them.

Vanderbilt made history as the first No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament to not make its regional final after losing to No. 4-seed Wright State on Sunday 5-4. Just like each of us in our own moments of sadness and disappointment, the Commodores will play the 'what if' game and wonder why the outcome ended like it did.

Let's be blunt. It’s a shocking turn of events for a team that had looked unbeatable in the last month, going 9-1, winning the SEC Tournament and getting a timely hit or home run whenever the Commodores need one (or more). The pitching staff wasn't unhittable, but was great at limiting walks, striking out batters and putting its offense in position to win.

But let us all take Vanderbilt coach Tim Corbin’s advice after the Commodores lost to Louisville in Saturday night’s game.

“Don't go searching for, like, a lot of ancillary bullshit,” he said to a reporter in the post-game press conference.

I won’t try and be a forensic analyst and deep-dive the statistics to identify why the Commodores are out of the NCAA Tournament (there are people better at that than me). There are two main reasons why we're not getting ready for a Sunday night game against Louisville:

• Vanderbilt’s offense disappeared; and
• Corbin’s Saturday night pitching gamble didn’t pay off.

Disappearing Offense

I’ll dive into the stats of this more later, but it’s clear whatever swagger Vanderbilt found in the last month at the plate didn't show up this weekend. The Commodores' offense was nearly non-existent and had to rely on a home run from Riley Nelson to win Friday night's game against Wright State.

Before that, the Raiders' Cam Allen had thrown a no-hitter through six innings. Take away Brodie Johnston's first inning home run and a very similar thing happened again. Griffen Paige threw a great game for Wright State, giving up two runs on a hit and six walks in eight innings and 113 pitches thrown.

In the last month, Vanderbilt appeared to have a bag of magic it could pull out late in games to secure a comeback or walk-off a win. The Commodores ran out of that magic this weekend, but learned that after Corbin made one of the biggest decisions of the Nashville NCAA Regional.

Pitching Gamble

Trailing 3-2 to Louisville in a winner’s bracket game Saturday night, Vanderbilt sent Connor Fennell to the mound in the seventh inning. Fennell was great. He allowed three hits, but no walks or runs and struck out two batters to hold the Cardinals at bay.

Vanderbilt’s offense failed to come up with a timely hit or two and lost the game. Had that happened, Austin Nye likely gets the start in Sunday night’s regional final with the entire Vanderbilt bullpen available to support and Corbin’s gamble to use his third-best starter in a relief appearance is praised as a genius move.

But it didn’t happen, and Vanderbilt didn’t have Fennell to start against Wright State on Sunday.

It’s pure speculation to say Sunday’s game would’ve had a different outcome if Fennell had started instead of Nye. Based on how each pitcher performed (and considering Fennell faced a better team), though, it’s not crazy to think Fennell could have done what Wright State’s Griffen Paige (8.90 ERA entering the game) did to Vanderbilt.

Why this gamble was a good risk to take has already been covered. That opinion hasn’t changed. It just simply didn’t work out.

It’s not a criticism of any coaching decisions. In fact, Vanderbilt coach Tim Corbin should be applauded for making the decision. He made the decision based on the faith he had in his players to do what it’d take to win in a situation where one swing ties the game. There’s nothing wrong with that because, if it had worked and Vanderbilt had beat Louisville, Corbin’s gamble would be hailed as an all-time smart decision.

It just didn’t work out like that and what happened today is a consequence of those decisions.

That’s sports, folks.

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